It was nearly 65 years ago that President Kennedy spoke these words, "I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the earth. No single space project...will be more exciting, or more impressive to mankind, or more important...and none will be so difficult or expensive to accomplish.”
What began as an arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union evolved into what was then, one of the most innovative and important technological advances humankind has known. Today we find ourselves in a new race, one being termed as the AI race.
It is an important one, determining who will shape the world economy and reinforce global superpowers. While the achievement of setting pace in this technological era is critical to national and global security, the consequences can be as equally if not more profound should state plans fail.
Competition for global AI dominance remains on market headlines and questions are beginning to surface whether the development of AI is advancing without sufficient understanding of systemic risks.
How AI is shaped will then determine how it will shape global industries - industries that up until now, have been built on human reason and intelligence. In July 2025, the Trump administration’s 23-page report on AI focused less on regulation and more heavily on domestic innovation. Shortly after the U.S. released its report, China followed behind, releasing its own Global AI Governance Action Plan.
Both countries outline different approaches with similar goals; promoting globalization, accelerating domestic adoption, and addressing risks without constraining development. As the U.S. plan is assessed, many are considering whether winning determinants such as R&D, an area that China seems to be focusing more heavily on, is a strong enough focus to ensure AI is aligned with U.S. national interests.
Research suggests that the economic impacts from AI-augmented R&D has the potential to speed up technological change and economic growth, potentially doubling if R&D is diffused widely. In 2025, China will spend $55 billion on R&D alone, with an increase of 10 percent on science and technology. Meanwhile the Trump administration’s proposed fiscal year 2026 budget calls for reductions to nondiscretionary spending- including certain research agencies.
According to R&D Investment, China not only has more researchers than the U.S., but its numbers are growing year-over-year in the R&D sector. The U.S. government focus on R&D, meanwhile, has seemingly stagnated or declined. In addition, the U.S. federal government share of total U.S. spending on research and development has witnessed a downwards trend.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has believed that ‘strengthening research is an urgent requirement for achieving greater self-reliance and strength in science and technology and it is the only way to become a world leader in science and technology’. R&D World predicts China will overtake the United States on PPP-adjusted R&D spending well before 2030.
In contrast, the U.S. has placed its focus on driving domestic innovation, increasing the development of the energy sector to support much needed data centers. To do so, President Trump began slashing safeguards in order to prevent anythingfrom blocking AI development and deployment. The U.S. action plan states that "the Federal government should not allow AI-related federal funding to be directed toward states with burdensome AI regulations that waste these funds, but should also not interfere with states' rights to pass prudent laws that are not unduly restrictive to innovation."
The U.S. AI Action Plan outlines the release of a new National AI R&D strategic plan, including NIST’s Center for AI Standards and Innovation (CAISI). Also included are investments in CHIPS-research and development programs and the transformation of senior military colleges into specialized hubs of AI R&D.
Questions remain as to what determinants will drive the outcome for the AI race, if R&D being one of them, and if the U.S. has placed enough emphasis on it. The acceleration in national Chinese R&D investment to drive domestic innovation with comparison to the U.S.’s focused determination to reduce regulation and spending (including research) to accelerate production is telling.
In rolling out America’s AI Action Plan, President Trump stated, “we will do whatever it takes to lead the world in artificial intelligence”. While markets are betting the U.S. will win the AI race and recent U.S. export controls have slowed Chinese progress, experts question who is equipped to remain in the race long term, and if countries such as China who are focusing on AI alignment may outpace the U.S.
With China heavily investing in alignment to prevent the risk of losing control to misaligned AI, perhaps we ought to take note. Although some believe investing in R&D for AI alignment hobbles American abilities, foresight may show differently.
