Micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) and Micro-systems (MST) together represent one of the fastest growing technology areas. Sales volumes of MEMS products will soon approach nearly 10% of those of the semiconductor industry. This growth rate has been achieved in less than ten years, and the MEMS industry has proven to be an enabling technology in several key economic sectors such as telecommunications and healthcare. The explosion in MEMS-related research expenditures has led to the creation of a new industry containing such infrastructure components as companies specializing in providing design software, design services, specialty fabrication equipment, and fabrication facilities. The range of applications for MEMS covers nearly every aspect of the economies of the developed countries. The most basic advantages derived from size reduction are less power consumption, lower cost, and increased reliability. However, the most significant benefit is the ability of MEMS devices to communicate easily with semiconductor chips. This attribute has given rise to the development of microsystems capable of performing tasks that would otherwise be impossible.
According to a report from Business Communications Company, Inc. RGB-270, MEMS Technology: Where To?, the worldwide market for MEMS/MST is currently estimated at $11 billion. By 2007, market revenues will exceed $26.4 billion, growing at an AAGR (average annual growth rate) of 19.1%. Sales comprise existing MEMS/MST products such as inkjet printer cartridges, as well as new products, including radio frequency filters for cell phones and motor controllers. The sales volume in 2007 is expected to exceed 6.8 billion units and grow at an AAGR of 19.5% through the forecast period.
Beyond 2007, growth is expected to continue as new applications and products are developed and global market penetration continues. As can be seen from the diversity of applications and products and size of the market sectors, general studies of this kind for the MEMS/MST industry may cease to be relevant except for reasons of academic interest. Indeed, each market sector and product type in itself deserves a detailed review.
Transportation and consumer products are currently two of the largest market sectors, representing respectively some 31% and 36% of current revenues. However, while new products will continue to be introduced within this sector, price reductions will ultimately stagnate growth as measured in dollars. The industrial military sector will continue to grow at a modest pace. Here the premium prices paid for low volume production military items will maintain the total market value of this subsector. Penetration into the industrial sector will continue to grow given demands on industry for better quality assurance in manufacturing and the price and performance advantages that MEMS sensors and actuators have.
The healthcare market should begin to grow at a rapid pace, in that price reductions should only affect some of the older MEMS products, such as hearing devices. The commercialization period is relatively long in this sector, given the need for extensive clinical testing and FDA or equivalent approval of products. However, several of the newer products discussed in this report will be commercialized by 2007 and will contribute to growth. In particular, by 2005, the lab-on-a-chip products and services should finally enter the marketplace in large quantities.
Growth in the consumer market will continue at a rapid pace because of increased worldwide market penetration of products such as computer storage media, inkjet printers, and video games. In addition, new applications such as computer game accessories, flat displays, and household goods applications should further augment growth.
The telecommunications sector, along with healthcare, should become one of the largest market sectors, despite its recent slump because of overcapacity. MEMS sales in both fiber optics equipment and wireless systems, including next generation cell phones, will be the major market drivers. The forecast presented here lags earlier forecasts made by others by two to three years. The lag time should allow telecommunications carriers sufficient time to decide which technologies to adopt and where in their systems they will be of most value. Similarly the demand for more functionality in cellular phones will force providers to find a way to integrate low-g accelerometers and radio frequency filters into their packaging. Finally, wireless sensing applications should be commonplace by 2007.
The environmental market should also prosper from wireless communications, although it will remain rather small compared to the other market segments. Concerns about water and air contamination, along with the need to make long-term assessments of climate and its effect on aquifers, will fuel growth in this area.
The MEMS/MST industry continues to grow at an amazing pace despite the fact that many of the older "killer applications," such as airbag accelerometers, are now becoming commodity items, and have come down to stable price levels. However, a new generation of such applications always seems to emerge. Part of the reason for this is that micro-machining is a tool, and not a product, that has diffused into nearly every possible aspect of modern technology. It has also emerged in a timely manner given the growth rate in new product and service demand in the healthcare and telecommunications sectors. However, there are still impediments to growth in almost every sector simply because the use of the technology changes so many existing processes that extensive retooling may be required, and industry leaders are cautious about quickly embracing such change. The use of optical switching in telecommunications is an example of this situation, as is overhauling the design of automotive electronic systems. Regulatory issues also impede growth, as is the case in the healthcare sector, where the FDA has been slow in adopting new medical procedures or devices based on MEMS because of perceived risk without sufficient validation.