Over the past several years, the semiconductor industry has been a crucial driver to, and a reflection of, the overall global economic climate. As such, this industry and its key segments have been followed and assessed quite acutely for trends in recent times. The ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) industry is one of the most dynamic segments of the semiconductor arena and is at the forefront of achieving higher levels of systems-on-silicon (SoC) integration while reducing the cost and complexity of integrating future design systems. Powerful economic and market forces are fueling high demand for rapid integration and delivery of single chip solutions. All of which makes it pertinent to comment on current trends (market and technology) as well as assess potential breakthroughs in the near and long-term future.
According to a soon-to-be-released report from Business Communications Company, Inc., RGB-274 From ASIC to SoC: A Paradigm Shift, the value of the worldwide ASIC/SoC market reached $21 billion in 2002. Projected to grow at an AAGR (average annual growth rate) of 21%, this market is likely to reach $54.7 billion by 2007. The collective revenue of this category will be almost 21% of the total semiconductor market, versus the 14% proportion today. It is, therefore, not surprising that the ASIC/SoC world is garnering a lot of attention in the new IC era.
The value of worldwide shipments of basic ASICs reached $10.9 billion by 2002 growing in value by 6.4% from the previous year. Overall, basic ASICs are expected to show a five-year AAGR of 10.8% to reach $18.2 billion in 2007. Basic ASICs consist of three primary areas -- standard cells, gate arrays, and bipolar arrays. After a nondescript 2001, standard cell revenues stabilized in 2002. This category will continue to dominate the basic ASIC segment, growing, on average, by 12.6% over the course of the forecast period. Gate arrays are losing their grip on the ASIC market -- revenues are taking a one-directional plunge. From 2002 to 2007, the segment will show an AAGR of around -3.3%. The story is even more dismal for bipolar arrays, a relatively smaller segment.
The other prong of the traditional ASIC market is the PLD/FPGA category. Revenues for these devices decreased substantially in 2001, but the trend showed signs of reversing for this segment in 2002. Positive growth will begin this year, and will contribute to a five-year AAGR of 20.2%.
Worldwide shipments of SoCs totaled $6.2 billion in 2001, up 12% as compared to 2000. Needless to say, this is the hotspot of the ASIC/SoC future, as BCC expects a healthy growth over the forecast period. SoC revenues will display AAGR of 31.6%, totaling $30.2 billion in 2007.
The SoC segment being classified under four major categories:
- SoC based on embedded micro logic (MPU, MCU, DSP): This category is ascending quickly and is one to look for. It will grow by a five-year average growth of 29%.
- SoC based on standard cell IC: Standard cell-based SoCs are estimated to grow substantially too. From 2002 to 2007, an AAGR of 36% seems eminently achievable.
- SoC based on embedded memory is the third major category and does not lag much behind the above-stated product types. Embedded memory-in-SoC is forecast to command a five-year AAGR of 24.9%.
- Other component-based SoCs, like analog ICs. Analog ICs are typically not associated with path-breaking technology but have found a focused niche in power-management based SoC applications. This category will grow, on average, by 13.5% through the rest of the forecast time-frame.