By Debbie Maskin, IEN Staff
July 25, 2008 – Although a transition to hydrogen vehicles could greatly reduce both U.S.reliance on oil and carbon dioxide emissions, a DOE-sponsored report by the National Research Council claims their high cost and the lack of an infrastructure to produce and widely distribute hydrogen to customers are the major roadblocks to their mass market acceptance. Hydrogen cars could become competitive in cost with conventional vehicles by 2015, but it would take an investment of about $55 billion by government and $145 billion by private industry over the next 15 years to make that happen, according to the report.
The Future is Now for a Lucky Few
Having convenient access to a hydrogen filling station will be required by each of the 200 leasees of Honda’s new FCX Clarity 4-door sedan, which runs on a fuel cell battery powered by hydrogen fuel and emits only steam. That’s why the leasees will be offered Honda's Home Energy Stations, which reform natural gas to generate the hydrogen. Combined highway/city mileage for the Clarity, which began commercial production last month in Japan, could reach 72 miles per kg of H2 which, Honda estimates, is equivalent to about 74 mpg on a gas-powered car. Its range between refuelings will be about 280 miles.
In the future, hydrogen vehicles could be equippped with internal combustion engines using pure hydrogen, or using a mix of hydrogen and natural gas. They could also be vehicles with fuel cells that use hydrogen produced on-board by converting liquid fuels (gasoline, ethanol, or methanol) to hydrogen, or by using hydrogen generated off-board and stored on the vehicle in compressed or liquid form.
Interestingly, according to the DOE, the system cost for automotive fuel cells has dropped from $275 per kilowatt in 2002 to $95 in 2008 and is projected to be $60 in 2009. The target is $30 by 2015. The estimated cost for a gasoline engine is about $50 per kilowatt.
Environmental Benefits
Light-duty vehicles, namely cars, SUVs, and pickup trucks, are responsible for 44% of the oil used in the U.S. and over 20% of the carbon dioxide emitted. The NRC report estimates that the maximum number of hydrogen vehicles that could be on the road by 2020 is 2 million, nearly 60 million in 2035, and 200 million by 2050, but only if hydrogen vehicles took over the market would there be a major decrease in oil consumption. The overall effect on greenhouse gas emissions would depend upon how the hydrogen fuel was produced. Today most hydrogen in the U.S., and about half of the world's hydrogen supply, is produced through the steam reforming of natural gas, a fossil fuel. It is also being produced from the gasification of coal. This raises the question as to how much the production of hydrogen itself will offset the environmental benefits of hydrogen vehicles.
Because they can be implemented more rapidly, improving the fuel efficiency of conventional vehicles or converting to biofuels could produce reductions in oil use and emissions faster than hydrogen, the report says, but after about 2040, hydrogen would become more effective. If biofuels, fuel-efficient conventional vehicles, hydrogen vehicles, reduced oil use, and a transition to low-carbon fuels were all pursued concurrently, the report concludes, greenhouse gas emissions from cars and trucks could be reduced to less than 20% of current levels and could nearly eliminate oil demand for these vehicles by 2050.