IEN: What are the major power and energy concerns facing industry in the next few years? How can they be addressed?
Brush: Unreliability in the grid system, power shortages, volatile power prices, and the recent recession have all contributed to efforts to restore reliability in the electricity market. Restructuring of the electric power industry is facilitating competition among power suppliers. However, in some areas, power deregulation has come to a halt, leaving the power industry in great uncertainty. The distributed and cogeneration (DCG) power sector is expected to have accelerated growth once the economy comes out of its cyclical downturn.
Still, the market for grid-alternative, onsite generators in North America appears to be lower in 2003 than in 2002, according to a recent study from Primen, an energy market intelligence company. Among 600 large businesses surveyed, only 2% were considered "strong prospects" for these generators. Last year, 15% were considered strong candidates. Industrial sites with heat recovery potential were among the groups with the strongest interest in onsite generators to meet their baseload power needs. In addition, the strongest prospects were found among the largest customers (700 kW+).
Of those companies actively evaluating distributed energy options, 29% cited gas engines, 29% cited gas turbines, and 21% cited microturbines as the technologies they were most likely to acquire. Not a single strong prospect surveyed said they were likely to purchase a fuel cell, although 78% of the commercial and industrial customers said they were aware of fuel cells. The main reasons for the softening market are stabilizing electricity prices, continued volatility in natural gas prices, and the economic slowdown.
IEN: What innovations in systems, equipment & components, software, and services can help reduce energy consumption and increase efficiency in plant operations?
Brush: The need for efficiency in distributed power generation is one of the main forces driving the power electronics industry. Use of power conversion technologies can significantly reduce the amount of energy lost in the DCG systems. Electronic power conversion systems are built using semiconductor devices such as diodes, transistors, and thyristors, with ratings compatible with DCG applications. The major advantages of these power converters are their higher efficiency and higher reliability as compared with rotating machinery converters. Additionally, this technology offers increased flexibility with the incorporation of protective relaying, coordination, and communications options.
Power electronics are indispensable components in DCG systems, since the electricity generated from various primary energy sources such as solar energy, wind, biomass and fossil fuels, is still in a raw condition before being converted to useful refined electricity through an input-control-switch-output power conversion process. Conserving electricity and making the system more efficient depends on the widespread adoption of the power conversion process, which takes electricity from a source and converts it to a form exactly suited to the electrical load. This process is analogous to what the oil refinery does to convert crude oil into various forms of efficient petrochemical fuels. Power electronics also serve as power conditioning to properly interconnect DCG power output to the power grid. As a key process that makes electrical energy more efficient and affordable, power electronics have been driven by development of DCG.
IEN: How about power supplies? Power quality?
Brush: Earlier this year, Darnell Group projected that the North American market for industrial batteries in electric utility applications would grow from $1,043 million this year to $1,436 million by 2008, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6%. Electric utility substations most often have batteries used as backup power sources. Substation batteries typically provide dc power for protection and control equipment (such as relays), and also provide trip and close current to circuit breakers and security. It now appears that near-term growth rates could rise above 10% as utilities rush to improve the reliability of their Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems. Most of the electric utility backup power systems for substation and SCADA applications include one or more inverters and battery chargers.
Power electronics are widely used in fuel cells, photovoltaics, microturbines, and wind turbines. Among these power electronics are inverters, static transfer switches, variable frequency converters, ac-dc power supplies, dc-dc converters, battery chargers, and meters. Other power electronics necessary to complete the DCG systems are dc to ac disconnects, overcurrent protection and other metering and monitoring, dispatch, communication, and control systems to improve system efficiency and ensure safety and stability. In traditional DCG systems, less than 5% of the system cost is electronic power conversion. However, power electronics accounts for 20-30% of the new DCG system cost. Moreover, a growing percentage of DCG systems will employ power electronics to meet the needs of interconnection and system efficiency.
In an effort to bring down overall DCG system costs, power electronics can contribute in several ways: improve system efficiency and reliability to increase the DCG competitive advantages over other power sources; innovative power conversion architectures to reduce components number and hence reduce costs and points of failure; and lower power electronics'' own costs. This not only covers the power generation, but also the entire system including DC cabling, inverters, installations, etc.
IEN: What are some R & D hot spots?
Brush: R & D is being conducted on innovative interconnection and control technology with the objective of developing and demonstrating cost-effective universal plug-and-play interconnection products, software and communication solutions, applicable to improving the functionality and economics of a broad range of distributed and cogeneration systems. The U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory have identified the near-term interconnection R & D needs to focus on transfer switches, paralleling switchgear, dispatch, communication, controls, power conversion, metering and monitoring, relays, and protective relaying.
These R & D activities are expected to result in lower costs as well as enhanced features and capabilities of distributed and cogeneration products, including management of distributed generation and storage resources, load management, and selling energy and ancillary services into electricity markets. Near-term inverter-based system R & D focuses on developing universal plug-and-play technology to reduce the need for custom designs for different distributed and cogeneration technologies and manufacturers. Switchgear-based system R & D for synchronous generators is targeted at increasing the solid-state integration of utility-grade switchgear, metering, and communications together with other distributed and cogeneration sources, and load control and protection functions. These efforts are expected to reduce the cost of interconnection systems by 15-20% in the near term. Technology for the aggregation and control of DCG in microgrids and other enterprises, including adaptive artificial intelligence technology, is also being researched.
In power conversion, the question is: Customized and optimized solutions or flexible, standard modules? It has been the trend in the industry for manufacturers to offer a series of modular power conversion products, which can be used in different DCG systems by engineering a combination of those subsets to fit different power levels and different energy sources. Will it be possible to further optimize energy efficiency and reduce the cost by customizing and integrating power conversion systems for a single DCG project and how to make the customizing work easier, faster, and better? Or, from the manufacturer perspective, cost effectiveness will be realized by using automated assembly to manufacture modules that are designed for use in multiple applications and for multiple DCG technologies. Where is the line between the two approaches? These questions can be answered only through more research, testing, and cooperation between the power electronics industry and DCG system builders as well as end-users.
Industry has demonstrated continued improvements in a broad range of product designs. Some of the major concerns that have directed product developments in recent years will also drive future R & D efforts. These research activities have been focused on: improving efficiency, thermal management, parts and size reduction, simplifying manufacturing, increasing programmability, control complexity, and cost reduction.
IEN: Will distributed generation/onsite power, cogeneration, fuel cell technology, and isolated power play an increased role in meeting industry''s power needs? How and when?
Brush: The distributed and cogeneration (DCG) power sector is expected to have accelerated growth once the economy comes out of its cyclical downturn. The growth of the DCG market has been pushing the power conversion industry into a fierce technology competition to increase energy efficiency and lower costs. The growing needs to interconnect DCG systems with the power grid are creating a big market for static power converters using advanced microprocessor technologies.
In order to solve the DCG interconnection issues, government and industry are working together to finalize industry standards and identify research needs regarding power conversion and power protection of DCG systems. IEEE P1547 and UL 1741, the universal standards for interconnection and power electronics, promise to expand the market further. These new standards are eliminating hurdles imposed by the previous differences in interconnection requirements in various geographical areas. Innovative power conversion architectures are emerging on the horizon, bringing new vision for the future power conversion industry. It is estimated that 15%-20% of electricity use can be saved by extensive application of power electronics. Not to mention the economic benefits provided by power reliability, which is enabled by deploying power electronics in mission-critical facilities in telecom, Internet data centers, and continuous process industrial plants.
Despite technology advances, environmental promotion and government support, distributed and cogeneration has not taken off significantly. One major prohibiting reason is the cost. Although the prices of solar plants and wind power plants have fallen over the last decade, the average prices of coal, oil, and natural gas fired generation have also stayed relatively low. The average electricity prices are projected to decline as a result of competition among suppliers, as well as declining coal prices, declining capital expenditures, and improved efficiencies for new plants.