IEN: What are the major concerns facing providers of automation technology and related products and services in the next few years? How can they be addressed?
Mirman: The major concerns are:
- Overcapacity and abundance of capital several years ago created a glut of goods (especially high-tech).
- Automation companies serving the telecom industry are finding themselves in the same boat as the military -- trying to find alternative uses for their automation technology and products. Manufacturers using the latest design software will have the advantage when adapting existing designs to new uses.
- Low priced, high quality products sourced in China have set a new value benchmark for automation and machinery equipment suppliers. This will put some manufacturers out of business. Those that buck the trend to cut infrastructure investments will stay on top of the design technology curve and will remain competitive.
- Lack of technological "breakthroughs" has created some level of stall.
- Over-hyped promises have made buyers cautious.
The good news:
- The world population continues to grow and therefore will demand goods.
- Reduction of global barriers, tariffs will increase world trade.
- Improved communication, transport, and financing are reducing friction for global activity.
- The environment is fertile for long-term growth and expansion: * We are seeing a crisis of confidence -- NOT capital; * Technology is a key competitive advantage for companies (just need rational investment, not hype); * VC funds are at an all time high (good indicator for the future), waiting for: · Opportunities; · Liquidity path. * Engine for growth and recovery has been small- and medium-size manufacturing: · Showing signs of stabilization; · Starting to see a slight increase in job creation.
So -- what should technology providers do?
- Take a deep breath and realize things will get better.
- Visualize what our business should look like when we exit the recession: * What will be our competitive advantage? * What do we need to do to make this happen?
- To realize this vision, companies must act NOW: * By the time we''re out of the recession it will be too late. * Continue to make strategic, critical R & D investment (i.e., don''t starve the department that will be the source of growth in the future!).
IEN: What innovations are in store for users of automation systems and peripherals? What enhancements can be expected in automation software?
Mirman: In the world of computer-aided design and manufacturing, I see the biggest innovations to be in the area of bringing to the mainstream engineers and designers some already available technologies, primarily by making the products easy to use and cost-effective for the masses. For example, although 3D modeling has been around for three decades, only now is it hitting the mainstream. More people have moved to 3D in the last 5 years than in the previous 25. Why? Because the product is now affordable, easy to use, and there is a cost-effective training and support infrastructure in place worldwide.
In a similar manner, finite element analysis has been around for several decades. But only recently have the tools finally become as integrated and simple to use to transform the analysis field from being strictly in the domain of the dedicated analyst, to being used throughout the design process by the very engineer developing the product. (COSMOSWorks and COSMOSXpress are two examples of this.) The breakthrough here is not in the math engine under the hood, but in the streamlined user interface which puts the power of analysis on every engineer''s desktop.
Another example is photorealistic rendering, which has been available since the early 1980s. But only now, with products such as PhotoWorks, is the rendering tool simple and affordable enough for engineers to use. In 1990, very few engineers raised their hand and said, "I would like to make a pretty picture of my design." Today, over 25% of SolidWorks'' 30,000 customers use the rendering product PhotoWorks to better communicate their designs with sales, marketing, and customers.
IEN: What advances do you see in motors, controls, networks, power systems, and web services?
Mirman: With respect to product development tools, we see several advances:
- Improved performance in parts, drawings, and assemblies. Today, we have customers in production designing complex assemblies with thousands, tens of thousands, and even more, parts. And while our customers are happy, and our software is fast, it can and will be improved further, such as raising the bar on production drawing generation from 3D models, to provide more flexibility, and automate some of the more mundane tasks.
- Bringing thermo-mechanical analysis tools to the design masses. Leveraging analysis throughout the design process can have a tremendous impact on the product development process, yet no analysis vendor has delivered on this possibility. We are optimistic about our ability to deliver on this vision because by leveraging our analysis and design product lines, we have the ability to put easy-to-use analysis into the hands of 213,000 users worldwide. As a first step in this process, in SolidWorks 2003 we are introducing COSMOSXpress, a wizard-based mechanical analysis tool.
IEN: Where are other R & D hot spots?
Mirman: Other areas worth keeping an eye on in our space include making data management a standard part of a product development infrastructure
IEN: Is the drive toward lean/flexible manufacturing impacting this sector? In what ways?
Mirman: Our sector is very much being impacted by this trend. The notion of increased outsourcing, and working with a globally distributed team, is fueling the drive for standards in data exchange, in particular relative to design data (CAD files). So as manufacturers outsource various aspects of the product design, prototyping, tooling, and manufacturing, the pressure to re-use designs -- rather than to redesign from scratch or import "dumb" geometry that lacks design intent -- increases dramatically.
And while the market has not embraced the efforts of standards consortia, some de facto standards have emerged. For exchanging 2D data, the standard is clearly the DXF and DWG file format. And for 3D data, SolidWorks is emerging as the de facto standard, given the broad adoption of SolidWorks worldwide.
IEN: Is it becoming harder to integrate legacy/traditional parts of the enterprise with the latest technologies?
Mirman: With respect to electronic design data, the success of the modern feature-based solid modeling design systems like SolidWorks and others have transformed the way design teams design and communicate their automation designs. Many companies realized early on that the legacy data they have stored in 2D CAD drawings is only slightly more useful than the paper drawings that fill their drawing vaults. Rather than attempt to "integrate" legacy 2D data, most design teams find it more productive to "convert" 2D data by using it to build feature-based 3D parts and assemblies. Products like SolidWorks leverage the existence of this legacy data by offering automated solutions to converting legacy DXF and DWG drawings to 3D.