By Mark Devlin, IEN Staff
May 1, 2008 -- Today, 802.11x networks most often come to mind when considering the term ‘wireless.’ Indeed, 802.11b/g/n standards (typically piggybacked onto Ethernet) are migrating from the home to the factory.
The future, however, is also beginning here and now—and not with 802.11. Rather, Dr. Jeff Reed, Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering and Director of Wireless @ Virginia Tech commented generally that, “We’re starting to see the deployment of 4G [cellular] systems now,” in the form of WiMax (802.16) and LTE, Long Term Evolution, a derivative of cellular GSM. “The big push there is more capacity: more users, as well as being able to handle higher data rates.” Cellular is catching on and will become a more significant player in the future than 802.11 though, according to Reed, cellular can thank WiFi for what will be its increasing success. So, WiFi and the never-ending search for strong-signaled hotspots will soon become a thing of the past. Big WiMax wheels are already spinning pretty quickly, with Reed expecting Sprint to have the largest initial rollout, having signed on about 50 companies to-date.
Interestingly, with the nation’s television scheduled to go all-digital in February of next year, what happens to the existing TV bands? “We’re also seeing refarming of the UHF bands” formerly used for analog TV, according to Reed. Recent auctions for the 700 MHz band, for example, involve the TV band. “It is expected that the FCC will allow license-free transmission in those same TV bands, with digital TV being on a priority basis.”
The UHF band, continues Reed, “...is in the best part of the electromagnetic spectrum. It has good indoor propagation characteristics, which can be very important for factories, antenna sizes can still be reasonable, and the component costs can be very reasonable. Google, Qualcomm, Verizon, and AT&T have already expressed interest in these refarmed TV bands. Google, even though they didn’t win the recent 700 MHz auction, seems very intent on using the TV band on a secondary basis with digital TV. As long as the TV channels are empty, you’re free to use them on an unlicensed basis. Many are expecting that that’s how Google will rollout their wireless services.”
No matter which wireless technology is implemented where and when, wireless security is a strong concern. Reed expects that there will be resistance to using wireless devices, even in factories—even with the enormous cost savings as compared to the planning, cabling costs, and expenses related to failed or damaged wiring. Just buying the cable ind installing it cost $100/ft for nuclear installation just a few years ago.
How much of that security concern is real as opposed to perceived? “I don’t know of that many cases where someone has committed fraud” by compromising wireless networks, says Reed but, surprisingly, he adds “It’s not that hard to do if you have an open access point. What about lower levels of security? “It’s not that hard to do, either. The early security measures for WiFi were shown to be inadequate. You could even download code off the Internet to break someone’s security. When you get up into the more modern security and encryption modes, however, it’s hard. It’s pretty tough.”
It surprising that such breaches really haven’t occurred. “It might be a matter of time,” adds Reed, “...and when it does happen, it could happen on a massive scale.” Aligning that potential with the cell phone cloning outbreaks in the early ‘90s, he says that such history is precisely why more people are looking at more secure 2G and 4G cellular bands. How big of an issue were cloned cell phones? “It was a billion dollar-a-year problem. The encryption of 2G made cloning much more difficult.” Is 4G that much better than 2G? “The jury’s still out. I would say that 3G and 4G learned a lot from the security problems with 2G. There’s an old rule of thumb, however: the more complex the system is, the more holes you have—it’s just a matter of finding them.” More code equates to greater chances of mistakes.
“Security and trust are going to be very important for the factory of the future. You don’t want systems shutdown, either inadvertently or intentionally, because of a problem with the wireless connection,” says Reed. He also commented that the much more flexible factory of the future will depend upon wireless technologies, since the cost to run, connect, move, and reconnect related wiring would be eliminated.
Farther down the road? “We’re seeing the development of ultra-wideband (UWB) technologies that promise to give us up to a gigabit/sec; enough to support things like cordless displays,” and will likely surpass the capabilities of even today’s wired systems.
Continue to Part 4: IEN 75th Predictions—RFID
REFERENCES
ADDITIONAL READING
A Sampler of Cutting Edge Engineering Research
Princeton University
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Replacing Wire With Laser, Sun Tries to Speed Up Data
New York Times, March 24, 2008
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Special Reports: 10 Emerging Technologies 2008
MIT Technology Review
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Forecasts For the Next 25 Years
World Future Society
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Top 10 Scientific Breakthroughs of 2007
Wired, December 27, 2007
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