The worldwide semiconductor memory market is characterized by rapidly evolving technology, continuous reduction in process, increasing competition, and a rapid move toward nanotechnology. Chip sizes are shrinking and memory content increasing. This has resulted in tremendous research activities in the field of nonvolatile memory (NVM). NVM is a general term for all forms of solid-state (no moving parts) memory that do not require their memory contents to be periodically refreshed. This includes ROM, EPROM, EEPROM, flash memory, and future technologies such as MRAM, FRAM, OUM to name a few.
According to a soon-to-be-released report, RGB-316 Non-volatile Memory Markets, from Business Communications Co, Inc, the global nonvolatile memory market is currently estimated at $17.3 billion. Expected to grow at an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 31.8%, this market is estimated to reach $69 billion by 2010. Its share in the total memory market is expected to rise from a current share of 33% to 45% in 2010.
- A strong demand for higher density and smaller-sized devices has led to the growth of NVMs in the digital electronics industry.
- The emergence of advance memory technologies such as MRAM, FRAM and OUM are expected to gradually take away some share of total volatile memory.
- The growth in the demand for electronic and digital products such as digital cameras, smart phones, etc., in emerging markets such as China, India, and Brazil is acting as a catalyst for the NVM market.
NVM is a small part of the semiconductor industry, which constituted approximately 8% of the total semiconductor industry revenue in 2004, when the industry experienced a sudden downturn in the second half of the year due to a buildup of channel inventory. This had a negative impact on the NVM market as well, which showed a downward trend in the second half of 2004, but it did not affect the overall NVM market.
Among existing NVM technologies, market for flash has grown rapidly, and currently it comprises almost 90% of the total NVM market. It is expected to grow at an AAGR of 12.6% over 2005-2010. This is due to a rise in demand for applications such as cellular phones, including smart phones, digital cameras and other digital applications. In the flash market, NAND flash is expected to make inroads into the share of NOR flash gradually; and the market for EPROM and EEPROM is expected to convey negative trends due to the growth of flash memory. However, EPROM and EEPROM will continue to be used in applications requiring low densities.
Nanotechnology is an advanced fabrication technology in which objects are designed and built by specification and placement of individual atoms or molecules or where at least one dimension is on a scale of nanometers. Applications based on nanotechnology are characterized by extremely high density. As a result, we expect nanotechnology to become an integral part of the memory market in the future, as the technology advances.
The various future NVM technologies based on nanotechnology that are expected to enter the memory market include MRAM, FRAM, holographic memory, polymer memory, OUM, carbon nano tube memory, and MEMS-based systems. These technologies are expected to be a viable alternative for existing NVMs. Some major companies involved in research activities in NVM include IBM, Intel, Infineon, and Hitachi, to name a few.
The usage of NVM is expected to increase through 2010, with the maximum growth coming from the telecom sector and others. In 2005, approximately 64.2% of the NVM is expected to be shipped to the consumer electronics industry. However, the share is expected to fall to approximately 47.1% in 2010, due to increase in demand for telecom products such as smart phones and high-end cell phones. Also, other industries, including industrial and automotive, will start using more of NVM as the products become more digitized.