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Commercial Satellite Imagery as Dual-Use Technology: The Genie is Already out of the Bottle, and Greater Threats Abound

Ron Stearns, Senior Strategic Analyst, Frost & Sullivan

United States government concern over the hostile use of commercial satellite imagery has received greater and lesser degrees of attention since the 1990s, and recent testimony from the Director of Central Intelligence would indicate that this issue is once again of greater concern. Specifically, the CIA is reporting that governments and non-government terrorist organizations are using commercial high-resolution imagery to plan military operations.

It does not take a great leap of faith to trust in such a statement, and DCI George Tenet has a duty to inform Congress of the methods and threats that could conceivably be used against the United States. The issue with Tenet''s statements has to do with the reference to three specific commercial satellite platforms, while not mentioning the vast market for other space-based and aerial imagery.

The companies and satellites alluded to, in no particular order, were: DigitalGlobe and its QuickBird-2 satellite; SpaceImaging and its Ikonos-2 satellite; and ImageSat International and its EROS A1 satellite. All three commercial remote sensing satellites can bring back panchromatic (black and white) images with a spatial resolution of 1.8 meters or better, meaning that any object 1.8 meters across or bigger should be detectable. EROS A1 is the 1.8 meter entrant, although the company says with post processing the actual resolution is closer to 1 meter. Ikonos-2 was first to market in this subcategory, and its 1-meter capability has been the benchmark by which media has defined "high-resolution." With a lower orbit, QuickBird-2 boasts a spatial resolution better than 1-meter -- 61 centimeters at nadir. DigitalGlobe and SpaceImaging are American companies, while the Israeli government provides most backing for Cyprus-based ImageSat International.

Technology Transfer and a Multitude of Choices

Third party technology transfers of high-resolution commercial remote sensing satellite data are of concern to the greater U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and intelligence communities. The United States'' current wartime stance has only served to heighten these sensitivities, and publicly giving voice to these concerns could have negative impacts for commercial satellite data providers.

Not mentioned by any U.S. government representative is the abundance and variety of commercial remote sensing data available on the open markets. Such imagery does not have to come from a commercial remote sensing satellite, nor does it have to be "high-resolution" to be a planning tool for a potential adversary.

Black and white satellite imagery runs the gamut from the three aforementioned entities to 5.8-meter panchromatic data from the Indian Remote Sensing satellites, 10-meter data from France''s SPOT commercial remote sensing satellites and 15-meter data from the U.S. government sponsored Landsat-7. With a degree of sophistication, adversaries -- be they nation states or non-government sponsored organizations -- can use this data to plan military or terrorist operations. This argument is not meant to equate all of these data sources as equally useful, but rather to illustrate the depth and breadth of choices available to an end user completely outside the restrictions and limitations of U.S. law.

When one looks at the relative sophistication of terrorist acts over the past decade, one is led to believe that 1-meter or better spatial resolution is not needed to plan the maneuver of an explosive-laden truck near a building. This statement is not intended to shock, but to illustrate that high-resolution imagery is most applicable to nation states with a concern for collateral damage. The ability to pinpoint a target of significance, and separate it from noncombatants, is of no concern to a terrorist bent on killing as many as possible.

Current U.S. law restricts not only the types of customers but also satellite-derived spatial resolution (.5-meter) considered legally commercially saleable. No such law exists for the purchase of aerial panchromatic imagery, some with a spatial resolution of 6 inches. This type of data is invaluable for city planners, local governments, and utility companies. The free flow of this data is an important tool in maintaining the safety and efficiency of all types of critical infrastructures, but it can also be employed for more sinister ends -- and any third-party transfer will likely occur completely under the radar.

Granted, once the data leaves the United States, any company, as well as the U.S. government, loses control. There is theoretically nothing to stop a foreign government from granting data and imagery access to forbidden groups, but by the same token imagery sold by ImageSat or SPOT to foreign customers does not even have this amount of "protection." Surely SPOT or ImageSat do not, nor will they, market their imagery and data to such entities, but the fact remains that any unilateral actions taken by any government will not solve this problem.

Adding to the situation is the fact that in the commercial world, imagery shelf life can be short lived. In growing urban areas data only six months old can be considered obsolete for applications as diverse as infrastructure planning, tax mapping or environmental remediation. Unfortunately this is likely not the case for rogue states or non-government terrorist organizations planning an operation against a fixed target. Fixed targets such as buildings and landmarks do not move, so "old" data is likely as useful as "new" data in this regard.

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